Predictors of Development of Atrial Fibrillation in Patients With Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source
abstract
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A proportion of patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) have silent atrial fibrillation (AF) or develop AF after the initial evaluation. Better understanding of risk for development of AF is critical to implement optimal monitoring strategies with the goal of preventing recurrent stroke due to underlying AF. The RE-SPECT ESUS trial provides an opportunity to assess predictors for developing AF and associated recurrent stroke.
Methods
RE-SPECT ESUS was a randomized, controlled trial (564 sites, 42 countries) assessing dabigatran versus aspirin for the prevention of recurrent stroke in patients with ESUS. Of 5390 patients enrolled and followed for a median of 19 months, 403 (7.5%) were found to develop AF reported as an adverse event or using cardiac monitoring per standard clinical care. Univariable and multivariable regression analyses were performed to define predictors of AF.
Results
In the multivariable model, older age (odds ratio [OR] for 10-year increase 1.99 [1.78-2.23]; P<0.001), hypertension (1.36 [1.03-1.79]; P=0.0304), diabetes (OR 0.74 [0.56-0.96]; P=0.022), and body mass index (OR for 5-unit increase 1.29 [1.16-1.43]; P<0.001) were independent predictors of AF during the study. In a sensitivity analysis restricted to 1117 patients with baseline N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) measurements, only older age and higher NT-proBNP were significant independent predictors of AF. Performances of several published predictive models were assessed, including the HAVOC and CHA2DS2-VASc scores, and higher scores were associated with higher rates of developing AF.
Conclusions
Besides age as the most important variable, several other factors, including hypertension, higher body mass index, and lack of diabetes, are independent predictors of AF after ESUS. When baseline NT-proBNP was available, only older age and elevation of this biomarker were predictive of subsequent AF. Understanding who is at higher risk of developing AF will assist in identifying patients who may benefit from more intense, long-term cardiac monitoring.
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Additional Info
Predictors of Development of Atrial Fibrillation in Patients With Embolic Stroke Of Undetermined Source: An Analysis of the RE-SPECT ESUS Trial
Circulation 2021 Oct 15;[EPub Ahead of Print], MC Bahit, RL Sacco, JD Easton, J Meyerhoff, L Cronin, E Kleine, C Grauer, M Brueckmann, HC Diener, RD Lopes, M Brainin, P Lyrer, R Wachter, T Segura, CB GrangerFrom MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine.