The Growing Burden of Invasive Melanoma
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The authors of this cohort study estimated future incidence rates of melanoma using cancer registries from six populations with moderate-to-high melanoma rates (US whites, UK, Sweden, Norway, Australia, and New Zealand). All populations had a significantly higher age-standardized incidence of melanoma in 2011 compared with 1982. In US whites, UK, Sweden, and Norway, melanoma incidence increased >3% annually between 1982 and 2011 and is projected to continue to increase until at least 2022. Australia had increased rates from 1982 to 2005, but has more recently had a decline in the incidence in melanoma. In all populations, the highest invasive melanoma rates occurred in adults aged ≥80 years and are expected to continue rising. In US whites, the number of invasive melanomas diagnosed each year is projected to increase from about 70,000 in 2007 to 2011 to >116,000 in 2026 to 2031.
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The estimate of future melanoma incidence is an important consideration for drug development and cancer prevention strategies. Cases of melanoma in the six populations studied will increase in the coming years.
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The Growing Burden of Invasive Melanoma: Projections of Incidence Rates and Numbers of New Cases in Six Susceptible Populations to 2031
J Invest Dermatol 2016 Feb 19;[EPub Ahead of Print], DC Whiteman, AC Green, CM OlsenFrom MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine.